Human Complexity Foils Electoral Predictions
Is opinion polling today a science or merely naturalism applied to politics?
The Pew polling group admits it was stumped by last November's U.S. presidential election. The results "came as a surprise to nearly everyone who had been following the national and state election polling." Most pollsters put Hillary Clinton's chances of defeating Donald Trump at 70 to 99 percent.1
Few will care if fashion critics call the hemlines wrong this season. But election pollsters consider their work both important and scientific: "Polling is an art, but it's largely a scientific endeavor," says Michael Link, president and chief executive of the Abt SRBI polling...
is a Canadian journalist, author, and blogger. She blogs at Blazing Cat Fur, Evolution News & Views, MercatorNet, Salvo, and Uncommon Descent.This article originally appeared in Salvo, Issue #40, Spring 2017 Copyright © 2020 Salvo | www.salvomag.com https://salvomag.com/article/salvo40/taking-polls-apart